A terrifying new animation has revealed the projected path of the ‘city-destroying’ asteroid heading towards Earth.
And it suggests that Earth isn’t the only object in the firing line.
According to Dr David Rankin, operations engineer for the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, the moon is also at risk of being hit.
Dr Rankin calculated the route that the asteroid, 2024 YR4, is most likely to take.
His calculations indicate that 2024 YR4 currently has a 2.1 per cent, or one in 48, chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
This is actually slightly less than previous estimates, which suggested there was a 2.3 per cent (one in 43) chance of impact.
Meanwhile, the scientist predicts there’s a roughly 0.3 per cent (one in 333) chance of 2024 YR4 hitting the moon.
If the asteroid does hit Earth, the impact could release a blast of energy equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT – 100 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
David Rankin, operations engineer for the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, calculated the route 2024 YR4 is most likely to take (white line). Showing the precise collision course which could lead to a deadly impact
A terrifying new simulation reveals the path of the city-killer asteroid 2024 YR4 which has a 2.1 per cent probability of colliding with Earth in 2032 (stock image)
The asteroid was first detected by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in December last year.
It soon set alarm bells ringing as NASA almost doubled the probability of an impact with Earth from 1.2 per cent to 2.3 per cent.
Although that probability has now slightly decreased, 2024 YR4 is still the only large asteroid with an impact probability greater than one per cent – making it by far Earth’s biggest threat.
However, Dr Rankin’s calculations present a chilling new possibility that the asteroid could collide with the moon instead.
In a post on BlueSky, Dr Rankin revealed that there was a roughly 0.3 per cent chance of 2024 YR4 hitting the moon.
Without any atmosphere to slow its approach, the asteroid would slam into the lunar surface at a staggering speed of 31,000 miles per hour (50,000 kilometres per hour).
The collision would unleash an explosion 343 times the size of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima and carve out a crater up to 1.2 miles (2km) across.
Should it hit the moon, it is most likely to land in the region stretching south from the Mare Crisium, a large plain of solidified lava, to the crater Tycho.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which caused the largest impact event in recorded history when it shot through Earth’s atmosphere in 1908, flattening 830 square miles (2,150 square km) of forest (pictured)
Analysis of 2024 YR4’s orbit indicates that the asteroid will most likely pass by Earth on December 22, 2032. However, new calculations suggest that it could also collide with the moon
This could be concerning since this would place the impact on the side of the moon facing Earth, potentially exposing us to a shower of lunar shrapnel.
Thankfully, experts say that the Earth likely wouldn’t be harmed by any impact which occurs on the moon.
Dr Rankin told New Scientist: ‘There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat.’
Unlike a large object such as 2024 YR4, these smaller pieces of debris should burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere creating nothing more than a particularly bright meteor shower.
In fact, some experts suggest that the collision between the asteroid and the moon could create a truly spectacular display.
Gareth Collins, a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, told New Scientist: ‘The impact flash of vaporised rock would be visible from Earth, even in the daytime.’
That means any keen stargazers on Earth could see the moment the asteroid detonates on the lunar surface with the naked eye.
However, it is currently seven times more likely to hit Earth rather than the moon.
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Without any atmosphere to slow it down, the asteroid would hit the moon at 31,000 miles per hour (50,000 kilometres per hour), creating an explosion bright enough to see from Earth with the naked eye
These probabilities are likely to change in the future as scientists gather more information about the asteroid’s orbit.
The current estimates for 2024 YR4’s orbital path, speed, and size come from hundreds of images taken by powerful telescopes all around the world.
However, over such a short period of time, it is difficult to precisely predict where the asteroid will travel.
While astronomers hope that the probability of an impact will rapidly fall towards zero, a direct collision with Earth cannot be ruled out.
Recently, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) made the emergency decision to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to take more accurate measurements.
The JWST will record the heat emitted by the asteroid using its infrared sensors which will give a more accurate estimate for its size.
A team of ESA scientists will make one observation in March when the asteroid reaches its peak brightness and another in May as it travels away from Earth.
This will be the last chance to observe 2024 YR4 before it becomes too dim to see from Earth until it returns again in 2028.
The European Space Agency has been given emergency access to the James Webb Space Telescope (pictured) to measure the asteroid’s size more accurately
Already, NASA has reached a hugely-important milestone with the DART asteroid deflection mission. In September 2022, the DART spacecraft was intentionally crashed into Dimorphos, an asteroid 6.8 million miles away. A similar method could be used to deflect asteroid 2024 YR4 before it reaches Earth
Those observations will be critical for determining whether the world’s space agencies need to take action to divert its course.
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission demonstrated how a space rock could potentially be thrown off a collision course with Earth by crashing a spacecraft into it.
Using a similar strategy to knock 2024 YR4 off its predicted orbit is one possible way that planetary defence organisations could protect Earth.
However, with only eight years until the asteroid arrives, some scientists have cast doubt on the plan to deflect the killer asteroid.
In a post on X, Dr Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and author based in London, points out that we ‘have less than eight years to potentially deal with it’.
‘You need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid deflection mission,’ he said.
