Three rounds into the Six Nations and Lions No. 10 shirt is still anyone’s to grab.
The easy assumption heading into this tournament was that the jersey was reserved for Finn Russell, whose wide range of playmaking skills appear ideally suited to the hard ground Down Under.
However, the Scottish fly-half has been a mixed bag in their three outings so far, alternating between mesmeric and maddening — typified by the recent loss to England, when Russell put the Scots in a position to win the contest with his electric attack play and then could not seal the deal with any of his three conversion attempts.
Marcus Smith was the other early favourite but, for all his obvious talents, England have never seemed quite sure how to use him and after first losing his fly-half slot to Fin Smith, his relegation to the bench for this weekend’s clash with Italy is a major blow Lions-wise.
Fin Smith has been decent without exhibiting the type of dominance the Lions look for while Gareth Anscombe has been a solid stop-gap for a Welsh side in desperate need of stability.
Put it all together and it is hard to escape the conclusion that Sam Prendergast has pulled clear in the race for 10 as Ireland line up their third Six Nations title in a row.
Sam Prendergast has won the Ireland No. 10 debate and made a claim to the Lions jersey too
Scotland’s Finn Russell’s grip on the No. 10 Lions shirt has loosened with an iffy Six Nations
Marcus Smith is supremely talented but can’t even nail down his place as England’s fly-half
The 22-year-old has been far from faultless but he has played with tremendous authority in Ireland’s three victories and perhaps the most impressive aspect of his performances has been Prendergast’s ability to shrug off errors and react with game-changing plays.
For the early stages of the championship, the big debate around the Ireland squad was whether it should be Prendergast or Jack Crowley starting at 10. It got quite heated, with arguments raging along provincial lines, claiming Munster’s Crowley was being unfairly overlooked to suit Ireland’s Leinster agenda and so forth.
There is little debate taking place now.
There were some half-hearted suggestions that Crowley should get a start for the final two games but it was never likely, especially with plenty of rest time between matches.
So, a year and a half after the retirement of Johnny Sexton, Ireland look like they have landed on their fly-half for, potentially, the next 10 years.
There is, however, one nagging caveat.
A look through the Six Nations stats sheet has Prendergast top of the one ranking no player wants to feature in — missed tackles.
Over three matches, Ireland’s he has missed 15 tackles in total and his defence, or lack of, has become a consistent theme ahead of Saturday’s showdown with France after the Welsh achieved considerable success running at Ireland’s No. 10 channel.
Andy Farrell is taking a break from Ireland duty to avoid any conflict of interest as Lions coach
Johnny Sexton was a different No. 10, more likely to fly into tackles, often to his own detriment
There remain doubts about Sam Prendergast’s ability in defence where he can be targeted
‘It (defence) is an area of the game which every player has to have, has to have time for, the physical battles of the game,’ said Ireland interim coach Simon Easterby this week.
‘At times he’s been excellent, and he’s put some real good shots in and at times he’s missed a couple… but that’s part and parcel of his growth as a player.’
Since bursting upon the scene with Leinster and Ireland, Prendergast has been regularly compared to his predecessor Sexton and, in terms of height and rugby background, there are definite similarities.
However, in style of play, Prendergast is most similar to the man who held down the No. 10 jersey before Sexton, Ronan O’Gara.
Prendergast is several inches taller at 6ft 5in but has the same slender build, 14st, and has made notable use of the spiral kick that was O’Gara’s trademark over a decade and a half with Ireland and Munster.
His passing style is also more akin to O’Gara’s than Sexton, as is his inclination to put others into space rather than run into it himself.
And, while Sexton was defined by his aggressive defending — often to the detriment of his own wellbeing — O’Gara, like Prendergast, was less fond of the physical side of the game.
Not quite the ‘matador’ as he was once described, waving attackers through, O’Gara would indeed put himself in the way of opposition runners, he just had mixed results when it came to halting them.
Prendergast is more similar to Ireland and Lions great Ronan O’Gara with a fluid running style
Ireland’s interim head coach Simon Easterby (right) could give Prendergast defensive support
Ireland have a huge showdown with Antoine Dupont’s formidable France side on Saturday
To counter this, Munster and then Ireland provided O’Gara with a protector or ‘minder’ in the shape of burly flanker David Wallace.
When runners targeted O’Gara’s channel as an easy way over the gainline, Wallace would appear to smash them backwards and it worked very effectively for many years.
Ireland may look to do something similar with Prendergast against the French tomorrow because, based on their media offerings this week, Fabien Galthie’s men are undoubtedly eyeing up the Ireland out-half route as a path to progress.
The French, as expected, have selected an enormous team and bench and if Prendergast is badly exposed in defence at the Aviva Stadium, it will have massive implications both for Ireland’s chances of victory and his own Lions aspirations later this year.
Lions head coach Andy Farrell brought Prendergast through with Ireland last November, backing him when all the support was behind Crowley, and he clearly believes in the young man.
However, Farrell made his name in rugby union as a defence coach and he knows from his previous Lions experiences in that role, that the British and Irish side cannot have a turnstile at 10.
So there will be a lot of scrutiny on Prendergast when he does not have the ball tomorrow.
‘Sam is fully aware of the need for him to step up in that area and I’m sure we’ll see a physical side to Sam on the weekend that will maybe put a few sort of question marks to bed,’ said Easterby when he named the team.
Front up to the best France can throw at him and it all opens up for Prendergast, with Ireland and the Lions… become a speed bump for French carriers, especially if it contributes to Irish defeat, and his claim on the Ireland and Lions spots looks less certain.
It could also cause Farrell to cast his eyes in the direction of the Top 14 and a player he knows will never shirk a tackle – his son, Owen.
