A Boris Johnson comeback as Conservative leader could bring more than 2.7 million voters back into the Tory fold, bombshell GB News analysis has revealed.
Johnson’s friends and allies have even told GB News that the 60-year-old, who is reportedly mulling over a return to frontline politics, would snatch millions of votes from his pro-Brexit nemesis Nigel Farage.
Recent analysis by top polling firm YouGov suggests Kemi Badenoch is struggling to retrieve support from the coalition that propelled Johnson to Downing Street in 2019.
The Leader of the Opposition is losing around one-in-four 2024 Tory voters to Reform UK, with just six per cent switching away from Farage’s populist party.
Boris Johnson
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A head-to-head poll between Johnson and Farage still suggests around one-in-five 2024 Tories would vote for Reform UK.
However, such a scenario would mean Johnson could immediately salvage some 485,000 votes by negating Badenoch’s losses
The ex-London Mayor would also manage to retrieve almost double the number of 2024 Reform UK voters, with 10 per cent of the 4.1 million Britons who voted for the populist party last summer giving Johnson an advantage over Farage.
However, the proportion of voters sympathetic to Johnson remains significantly lower than the figure in 2019.
Johnson could call on the support of around 80 per cent of eventual 2024 Reform UK supporters.
READ GB NEWS’ EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson ‘comeback’ plot leaves Nigel Farage facing ‘huge threat’ as Tories hold ‘trump card’ to sink Reform UK
Despite bringing an extra 650,000 voters into play at the expense of Reform UK compared to Badenoch, Johnson also appears to provide an enforcement factor for Farage’s loyal followers.
Around four-in-five 2024 Reform UK voters believe Farage would make a better Prime Minister than Johnson, up from just under three-in-four against Badenoch.
But Badenoch struggles to cement Conservative support in the same vein, with just 35 per cent of 2024 Tories claiming that they would prefer to see the Leader of the Opposition in No10 over Farage.
Meanwhile, Johnson’s base support shoots up to 59 per cent, opening up an opportunity for 2019 Tory voters to also return to the fold after siding with Sir Keir Starmer or Sir Ed Davey last summer.
GB News’ analysis, which extrapolates the number of voters sympathetic to Johnson or Badenoch when put up against either Farage or Starmer, suggests the former Prime Minister’s teflon-like appeal outstrips his rivals among key swing groups.
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Johnson is handed the support of 12 per cent of 2024 Labour voters in a head-to-head match-up with Starmer, up from seven per cent for Farage and five per cent for Badenoch.
Despite the ex-Prime Minister losing Remain-voting Blue Wall support during his premiership, including in Chesham & Amersham and North Shropshire, Liberal Democrat supporters also appear more sympathetic to Johnson.
Around two-in-five prefer Johnson to Starmer, with Badenoch appealing to just 10 per cent and Farage’s newfound support hitting only eight per cent.
The analysis suggests that around 2.7 million voters could fall back into the Tory column if Johnson made a Churchill-style comeback, up from 1.5 million potentially switching to Badenoch.
However, Johnson’s scandal-stricken departure from Downing Street negatively impacted his popularity, particularly following Partygate.
There is no evidence of an overwhelming yearning for Johnson to return to No10, with Brexit fault-lines also painting an even murkier picture.
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Pro-Brexit voters tend to hold much more sympathetic views of the former Prime Minister but still sit in the red at -2 per cent, down compared to Farage’s net score of 19 but up on Badenoch’s -18 figure.
Meanwhile, 2016 Remainers give Johnson a -70 per cent favourability, compared to -73 per cent for Farage and -53 per cent for Badenoch.
Johnson’s divisiveness could make any potential path back to power even more unlikely.
However, Rishi Sunak already oversaw Tory support being siphoned off at all angles, with a plurality settling with Reform UK.
The Tories trailed successful Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Reform UK candidates by less than five per cent in a staggering 112 seats, including in once true blue Bury St Edmunds, Chelmsford and Witney.
It is not clear how Johnson would fare given there is limited polling on hypothetical Tory leaders facing off against the current crop of opponents.
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YouGov’s senior research executive Beth Kuhnel Mann also erred on the side of caution about the former Prime Minister’s ability to win back Farage fans.
She told the People’s Channel: “Our latest polling shows that Boris Johnson remains an unpopular figure amongst most, and a divisive figure amongst right-leaning voters.
“It is true that 49 per cent of Reform voters hold a favourable view of the former Conservative Prime Minister, but 46 per cent hold an unfavourable view.
“This means it could prove challenging for Johnson to pry Reform voters away from the party, especially given how popular their current leader Nigel Farage is among its voters.
“An overwhelming 91 per cent of those who backed Reform UK in 2024 have a positive view of him, and 82 per cent say he would make a better Prime Minister than Johnson.”
Despite speculation about the impact of a Johnson comeback, an ally of the former Prime Minister told GB News: “He will only come back if he thinks he can offer something to the Tory Party. It’s unlikely. He’s really enjoying life away from Westminster.”
Responding directly to the rumours, Johnson added: “I’m working flat out writing some books and building a new kitchen.”
