An incumbent Democratic senator is shockingly facing headwinds after leading in the polls for months in a swing state race now critical to the control of the Senate.
A new survey from the Cook Political Report shifted the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin from ‘lean Democrat’ to a ‘toss up’ on Tuesday with four weeks to Election Day.
The analysis finds that Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., holds a two point lead over Republican businessman Eric Hovde, indicating that the incumbent has lost major ground in recent weeks.
But her lead is well within the margin of error for the survey, meaning the race truly could cut either way.
And with Republicans only needing to pick up one Senate seat in battleground states Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio or Pennsylvania, this race tightening only increases their odds of taking control of the chamber come November.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump listens as GOP candidate for U.S. Senate for Wisconsin Eric Hovde speaks during a rally at Dodge County Airport on October 06, 2024 in Juneau, Wisconsin. Cook Political Report indicated Hovde has been improving in his race
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Still, Baldwin has reliably polled much better than Hovde this entire campaign cycle.
Baldwin has maintained at minimum a 3.5 point lead over Hovde at all times, some polls even showed her up close to eight points, the RealClearPolitics Poll Average shows.
For example, a survey done by Marquette University at the end of September found that Baldwin led Hovde 53 percent to 46 percent, a seven point cushion for the Democrat.
A spokesperson for her campaign told DailyMail.com she is not worried about her lead being erased.
‘This race was always going to be a toss up, that’s why Tammy Baldwin is working every day to unite Wisconsinites of all stripes and win,’ the spokesperson said.
‘Next month, voters will reject California bank owner Eric Hovde’s insults, lies, and extreme policy positions and send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate to keep fighting for them.’
But whether voters in the state will reject Republicans remains to be seen.
Currently, the Senate is divided between 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats and Independents that vote with the liberal flank.
Hovde is an entrepreneur who was born in Madison, Wisconsin
U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin delivers remarks at a campaign rally for Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris in Madison, Wisconsin, on September 20, 2024
The Senate races considered to be the closest right now are in Montana, where incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester is trailing behind businessman Tim Sheehy.
In Arizona, where former gubernatorial candidate and conservative firebrand Kari Lake is running against Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego, a veteran of the War in Iraq.
Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, is facing a tough fight with Republican Bernie Moreno.
Pennsylvania where former gubernatorial candidate Dave McCormick has a shot against veteran Democrat Sen. Bob Casey.
And finally, Wisconsin, where Baldwin’s reelection prospects where safely trending her way, until recently.
Should Republicans win any of these competitions, it would all but ensure the GOP would gain control of the Senate in 2025.
The state has been at the center of a contentious fight between the Republicans and Democrats now for years as it is one of the most closely politically divided states in America.
Voters there sided with President Joe Biden by a narrow margin in 2020.
In fact, the race was so close it was decided by roughly 20,000 votes in the state.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump listens as Senator Ron Johnson speaks during a rally at Dodge County Airport on October 6, 2024
Supporters listen as Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks in Juneau, Wisconsin
Senator from Ohio and 2024 Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance (R) gives a thumbs up as he shakes hands with ex-president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during the second day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 16, 2024.
In the last 30 years only one Republican has won a Senate seat in Wisconsin, that being Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., who has served since 2011.
Johnson won reelection in 2022 by around 27,000 votes, squeaking out a victory with a one point margin ahead of his challenger.
Possibly deciding that the state needed an infusion of GOP enthusiasm, the Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee in July.
Donald Trump and his vice presidential pick Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, have also made multiple stops in the state.
Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris speaks next to former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., during a campaign event at Ripon College in Ripon, Wisconsin, U.S., October 3, 2024
Cheney, a conservative, is a devout opponent of Trump
Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has also chosen to spend her time campaigning there.
Just last week she visited Ripon, Wisconsin – considered the birthplace of the Republican Party – campaigning alongside former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, daughter of former VP Dick Cheney.
At the event Thursday the former Wyoming lawmaker endorsed the Democratic nominee appearing alongside her and delivering remarks.
