Could the tempestuous weather that ushered in the New Year be a bad omen for 2025? Let’s hope not.
But I’m not alone in looking ahead to the next twelve months with a high degree of trepidation.
The post-war world order in the West looks increasingly unstable with free trade and centrist politics under threat from a surge in populism.
The biggest event we already know about is the return of Donald Trump to the White House: he will officially be sworn in for his second term on January 20.
To state the obvious, this will have enormous implications for the UK, politically and for the economy.
If Trump goes ahead with his threat to slap tariffs on imports into the US, it would threaten the decades-long trend towards free trade and globalisation.
Instability: The post-war world order in the West looks increasingly unstable with free trade and centrist politics under threat from a surge in populism
Some economists argue the UK will not be in the front line of countries affected, but even so. Our chances of a good trade deal are not helped by fractious relationships between elements of the Labour Government and the incoming Trump administration.
This is, predictably, leading to calls to ‘reset’ – to use the Chancellor’s word – our relationship with the EU, a euphemism for trying to undo Brexit.
It is easy to envisage the UK being caught between a Trump White House and trying to placate EU leaders.
Who would have confidence in this Government’s ability to walk such a tightrope? Not me. Alongside Trump is Elon Musk, a figure who is as alarming as he is fascinating.
In the UK, Nigel Farage has claimed ‘political support’ from Musk and there has been speculation the Tesla billionaire may find a way to provide cash backing.
He has thrown a grenade into German politics by writing an article in support of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland ahead of elections there in February.
The German economy, once a mighty engine, is in a bad way and is vulnerable in a new Trumpian world order because of its dependency on exports in general and the motor industry in particular.
Germany has been slow to embrace tech and AI, and is particularly vulnerable on the energy front because of Angela Merkel’s decision to shun nuclear in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
In France, few could fail to have been inspired by the re-opening of Notre-Dame, five years after the terrible fire. Neither that, nor the Paris Olympics, can disguise that 2024 was an awful year across the Channel and this one could be worse.
The attempts by former prime minister Michel Barnier – best known in the UK as the EU’s chief negotiator over Brexit – to push through €60billion of tax hikes and spending cuts resulted in a no-confidence vote and the first collapse of a French government for more than sixty years.
President Macron’s chances of seeing out his term until 2027 rest with his new Prime Minister, Francois Bayrou, who will have to persuade those on the Left and the Right to desist from toppling the government.
The far-Right National Rally party’s Marine Le Pen, who with leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon brought down Barnier, is facing a verdict in an embezzlement case in March.
Prosecutors have asked for a five-year jail term and a bar from running for public office for five years, though this could backfire and make her a martyr.
Perhaps it is not that surprising that some big investors view the UK as an oasis of political stability – relatively speaking.
Happy New Year.
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