Scotland is on course to return the largest pro-independence majority in Holyrood’s history as Labour support dramatically collapses, according to a new poll.
The survey by Find Out Now reveals a stark reversal of fortunes for Scottish Labour, which now risks an historic backslide at next year’s election.
And its findings suggest pro-independence parties the SNP, Alba and Scottish Greens would secure 74 of the Scottish Parliament’s 129 seats, marking the highest such tally ever recorded.
The SNP is projected to secure 31 per cent of the constituency vote and 25 per cent on the regional list – translating to 51 Holyrood seats.
Anas Sarwar’s (right) Scottish Labour now risks an historic backslide at next year’s election – with Sir Keir Starmer apparently to blame
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Labour’s support has fallen to just 19 per cent in constituencies and 15 per cent on the regional ballot.
This would result in Labour winning only 16 seats, a drop of six from their previous record low in 2021.
And despite the poll suggesting the SNP will lose a fraction of its 62 MSPs, it would still emerge as the largest party in Holyrood.
The Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats are each predicted to win 15 seats in Holyrood, according to Sir John Curtice’s analysis.
Reform UK and Alba are also expected to make breakthroughs, with projections showing nine and eight MSPs respectively.
MORE LABOUR BLOWS:
Despite the poll suggesting John Swinney’s SNP will lose a fraction of its 62 MSPs, it would still emerge as the largest party in Holyrood
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This distribution would result in pro-independence parties holding 74 of the parliament’s 129 seats – an unprecedented majority.
However, the SNP’s projected 51 seats would mark their lowest tally since 2007, when the party was led by Alex Salmond.
The dramatic shift comes just months after Labour’s Westminster triumph over the SNP in July, when Anas Sarwar was widely tipped to become the first Unionist First Minister in almost two decades.
But since then, Labour has “imploded” – which polling guru Sir John Curtice attributes to unpopular decisions by Sir Keir Starmer in London.
“It goes to show how the worst thing that ever happened to Anas Sarwar was Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister,” Curtice said.
‘The worst thing that ever happened to Anas Sarwar was Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister,’ Curtice said
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“The SNP finds itself where it is basically because Labour support has imploded,” he added.
SNP deputy leader Keith Brown welcomed the poll results, stating it would see “the SNP return to government alongside the largest pro-independence majority the Scottish Parliament has ever seen.”
He added: “Labour can promise plenty in an election, but they cannot deliver in Government. If Labour can’t be trusted in London, they can’t be trusted in Edinburgh.”
But Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie responded by saying her party would “work tirelessly” to earn voters’ trust.
“Labour has put an end to 14 years of Tory chaos and is working to fix the foundations and transform our country,” she said.
