A historian who’s successfully predicted almost every presidential election since 1984 believes the war in Ukraine could pose a huge problem for Kamala Harris in November.
Allan Lichtman used his ‘Keys to the White House’ theory in September to confidently forecast that Harris would win the election – but now he’s admitting her road to victory might not be so easy.
His previous projection was based on thirteen factors, or ‘keys,’ which assess the candidate’s performance on various issues like domestic politics, economy, and foreign policy.
In Lichtman’s system, each of the 13 keys can be presented as a true-or-false statement. He believes that if eight or more of these statements are true, the candidate will win but if seven or less are true, they will lose.
The polling ‘Nostradamus’ said that the war in Ukraine could pose a problem for Kamala Harris
Allan Lichtman is a historian who has successfully predicted almost every presidential election since 1984
After he announced that Harris would emerge victorious, critics began identifying flaws in his forecasting model.
Now, the historian appears less confident about Harris’ performance in his ‘foreign policy key’ – a factor he had previously said would work in the candidate’s favor.
Lichtman attributed this to the war in Ukraine, indicting that the conflict is a major weakness for Harris.
‘Well, the shakiest key is the foreign policy key,’ the historian conceded during a live-streamed interview on YouTube on Wednesday.
‘I gave that to the administration because it was Biden… who put together the coalition of the West that stopped Putin from conquering Ukraine and going after our NATO allies and deeply endangering America’s national security.’
After first explaining that U.S. aid had kept Ukraine ‘alive’ for over two-and-a-half years, the 77-year-old historian then remarked: ‘Wars are fluid.’
He added: ‘And I suppose there could be a catastrophe in Ukraine.’
Lichtman successfully predicted Trump’s victory in 2016
Lichtman, who is a professor at American University, clarified his comments to Newsweek on Friday.
‘[Foreign policy] is just the shakiest comparatively because wars are uncertain.
‘However, by now I am confident it will not flip. Even so, a flip would not change the prediction because Harris has a two-key cushion with four negative keys.’
It is unclear to what extent the divisive war in Gaza and the calamitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan influenced the historian’s judgment.
Lichtman’s thirteen keys are party mandate, no primary contest, incumbency, third-party challenge, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military failure, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
According to Lichtman, keys two, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, and 13 are currently true, which is just enough to secure a Harris victory.
Using these same keys, the historian concluded that Trump would win the 2016 election – a prediction that was at variance with polling data, and one that raised eyebrows in the academic community.
When Trump won, Lichtman was vindicated, and he was hailed as the ‘Nostradamus’ of elections.
Allan Lichtman predicted Harris would win the 2024 election using his model that includes 13 keys
Earlier this month, he offered his opinion on how Hurricanes Helene and Milton might impact the election.
‘The hurricane is a humanitarian catastrophe, and of course it is critically important that the response be as effective as possible.’
Despite the widespread destruction caused by the storms, Lichtman stood firm in his prediction.
‘The storm does not, however, affect either the short-term or the long-term economic key.
Historian Allan Lichtman said that a so-called October surprise would not make him back off his prediction that Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump in November
‘It is not going to push us into recession in the next few weeks or impact [the] full record of real per capita growth during the Biden term, which is twice the average of the previous two terms.’
Some commentators viewed the hurricanes as forms of an October surprise, an important news event that occurs in the final weeks of a presidential campaign that has the potential to derail their chances.
Lichtman, however, previously voiced his disdain for the concept, saying that it has never influenced his predictions.
‘One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise.’
