A ‘polar vortex collapse’ is set to plunge the United States back into the frigid weather much of the country suffered through in February.
This weather phenomenon is expected to bring more winter weather and extremely cold temperatures by mid-March, likely leading to widespread travel disruptions for millions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains that a polar vortex a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of the Earth’s poles.
The vortex describes the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air near the poles.
A ‘collapse’ occurs when the layer between six and 31 miles above the Earth’s surface heats up to 50 degrees in less than two days.
In scientific terms, it’s called sudden stratospheric warming, and the event can cause cold Arctic air to bleed south – bringing icy conditions to the US, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Europe.
A polar vortex collapse already took place in February, contributing to a wave of winter storms, particularly in Midwest and Northeast.
AccuWeather’s lead meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, ‘When the Polar Vortex is disrupted – whether stretched, displaced, or split – it can, but does not always, impact this polar jet stream.’
‘The timing is uncertain for North America but could see a change in the pattern for late March into early April,’ Pastelok added.
A polar vortex collapse is in the forecast for mid-March, bringing more cold temperatures and winter weather to the US
The cold air from a polar vortex is funneled south by Earth’s jet stream, which already swept winter storms across the US in February
The polar vortex always exists around the North and South Poles, weakening in the summer and strengthening in the winter.
However, NOAA explains that when the polar vortex weakens in winter due to a sudden warming event, the vortex expands, sending extremely cold air down south using Earth’s jet stream – the narrow bands of wind roughly five to seven miles above the ground.
This also makes the jet stream carrying the cold air unstable, leading to major snowstorms and cold temperatures throughout the US.
While these events sound like rare weather catastrophes, officials with NOAA noted this happens fairly often during winter.
As for this impending collapse, Pastelok told The Independent there’s a slight chance that the polar vortex with suffer a ‘complete split’ in its jet stream pattern.
In that event, the wintry temperatures could last for one to two months, stretching deep into the spring.
The more likely weather pattern right now is a ‘displacement’ in the polar vortex. Pastelok added that this would cause a shorter change in temperatures and mainly affect the central and eastern portions of North America, as well as parts of Europe.
February’s winter weather brought feet of snow to several states throughout the Midwest and Great Lakes region
Meteorologists are now predicting even more arctic temperatures for the northern part of the US in March
The last polar vortex collapse left a mess across much of the US, bringing feet of snow, landslides, and cancelled flights to millions of Americans.
Throughout most of February, meteorologists noted that the jet stream bringing cold air from the north was locked in an almost perfectly straight line over America, moving from west to east.
This nonstop weather system continued to fuel winter storms, which developed in the Plains and Midwest and swept up into New England.
On February 19, the temperatures plunged into dangerously cold territory, with meteorologists saying that states like Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and Iowa, would likely see temperatures hit -45°F with -60°F wind chills.
In eastern states, residents were warned to avoid the outdoors as temperatures around -10°F were in the forecast.
While the middle and east of the US was pounded with ice and snow, an ‘atmospheric river’ brought flooding and landslides to California – including parts of Los Angeles ravaged by wildfires.
All of these storms throughout February led the cancellation or delays of thousands of flights nationwide. On February 12 alone, over 4,400 flights were disrupted due to poor weather.
When it comes to March’s predicted polar vortex collapse, AccuWeather warns that the northern half of the US should buckle up for a few more weeks of winter.
‘The first weeks of spring may feel more like winter across the northern half of the United States as there is a turbulent transition between the seasons,’ meteorologists wrote in their Spring 2025 forecast.
That icy forecast includes all of New England, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
