The odds of a ‘city-killer’ asteroid smashing into the Earth on December 22, 2032 appear to have ticked up slightly.
NASA previously estimated that Asteroid 2024 YR4, a nearly 200-foot-wide space rock, has a one-in-83 chance (1.2 percent) of striking our planet.
But now, the agency’s ‘Sentry’ Earth Impact Monitoring system reports a one-in-77 chance (1.3 percent) of a direct hit.
Astronomers have also calculated a predicted impact zone that stretches from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa.
The asteroid has the potential to cause significant damage, especially if it lands in a densely populated area like a major city due to it being the size of another space rock that hit Earth in 1908 with a blast equivalent to detonating 50 million tons of TNT.
Though estimates suggest a very small increase in the likelihood of impact, astronomer and professor of planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Richard P Binzel told DailyMail.com that it is nothing to worry about.
‘The difference between 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent doesn’t matter,’ he said.
‘Until the data are sufficient to pinpoint which of these two final answers is correct, we can expect the probability numbers to wobble around a bit. This is simply how scientific data measurements play out,’ he added.
The current ‘risk corridor,’ or the geographical area where the 2024 YR4 is most likely to hit, runs from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa
Regardless, the odds of this asteroid impacting our planet are still very low.
Astronomers say it is much more likely to safely pass us by, coming within roughly 66,000 miles of Earth.
Astronomers believe 2024 YR4 is roughly the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which caused the most explosive impact in recorded history when it shot through Earth’s atmosphere in 1908, reportedly killing three people.
It exploded in the air over Siberia in what’s known as an ‘air burst,’ flattening an estimated 80 million trees over 830 square miles of forest.
If 2024 YR4 infiltrates Earth’s atmosphere, it could cause a similar event, astronomers say.
Alternatively, it could remain intact during the descent and slam into the ground, creating a massive crater and decimating human communities in the impact zone.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 shot to the top of NASA’s automated Sentry risk list that ranks known Near Earth Objects (NEOs) on how likely they are to collide with our planet.
NEOs are asteroids and comets that orbit the sun and pass close to Earth.
The recently found space rock, however, is currently the most threatening NEO astronomers are aware of, ranking as a three out of 10 on the Torino risk scale, a tool for categorizing potential Earth impact events.
It’s a scale from zero to 10, with higher numbers indicating a greater risk of impact.
Most NEOs never reach higher than two on the scale.
Analysis of 2024 YR4’s orbit indicates that the asteroid will come within 66,000 miles of Earth on December 22, 2032. But when orbital uncertainties are factored in, it turns out there is a 1.2 percent chance of it directly hitting out planet
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which caused the largest impact event in recorded history when it shot through Earth’s atmosphere in 1908
The Tunguska asteroid exploded in the air over Siberia in what’s known as an ‘air burst,’ and a blast equivalent to detonating 50 million tons of TNT that flattened an estimated 80 million trees over 830 square miles. Experts say Asteroid 2024 YR4 could cause a similar event
While NASA and astronomers worldwide are keeping a close eye on the incoming asteroid, they are unable to predict how much damage it would cause.
Experts will need to determined the asteroid’s composition and true size before calculated its impact, which can only be done when it moves closer to our planet Rankin told Space.com.
‘Size and composition are big players in possible damage, along with impact location,’ he said.
‘It’s hard to constrain size and composition with the current orbital situation, as it’s outbound,’ or moving away from us, he added.
Experts still aren’t 100 percent sure how much damage a direct hit from 2024 YR4 would cause (STOCK)
But best way to measure an asteroid’s size is with radar observations, he added.
This technique reflects radio waves or microwaves off an asteroid’s surface and then analyzes the reflections to calculate its size.
Astronomers may have a chance to perform radar observations in 2028 when the asteroid passes within roughly five million miles of Earth, Rankin said.
Until then, astronomers must rely on the asteroid’s absolute magnitude, or brightness, to indirectly estimate its size.
This calculation gives them a rough diameter of 196 feet, but this estimate assumes that the asteroid’s surface has a certain level of reflectivity that may not be accurate.
‘If the asteroid has a darker surface, that number is too small; if it has a more reflective surface, that number is too high,’ Rankin said.
Asteroid reflectivity depends on its composition, which also plays an important role in how space rocks behave once they penetrate Earth’s atmosphere.
‘If [asteroid 2024 YR4] is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground,’ Rankin said.
‘If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater. This is why understanding not just the orbit but also the composition and size are so critical.’
Due to these risk scenarios, astronomers will closely study and monitor 2024 YR4 in the years leading up to its approach.
But ‘people should absolutely not worry about this yet,’ Rankin said.
‘Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us,’ he said.
Now that 2024 YR4 has been identified as a potential — but unlikely — threat, the race to learn as much about it as possible before 2032 is on.
