NASA scientists previously estimated that the odds of ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 could rise to 20 percent, but the agency never told the public.
A statistical analysis reportedly showed that this ‘worst-case scenario’ could have come to pass by April.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a roughly 200-foot-wide space rock first spotted last December.
It immediately shot to the top of NASA’s automated Sentry risk list, which ranks known Near Earth Objects (NEOs) on how likely they are to collide with our planet.
At the time, scientists estimated that this asteroid had a 1.2 percent chance of slamming into Earth on December 22, 2032.
But during a February 4 meeting of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), NASA experts submitted projections that ‘reveal how seriously the agency was taking the threat,’ The Telegraph reported.
If this space rock were to hit Earth, it would create a blast equivalent to detonating 7.7 megatons of TNT and leave a 3,000-foot-wide crater in the ground, experts say.
That means its explosion would be 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
NASA scientists previously estimated that the odds of ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth could rise to 20 percent, but the agency never told the public
In the weeks following its discovery, the estimated odds of a direct hit from 2024 YR4 changed multiple times, climbing as high as 3.1 percent by February 18.
The asteroid earned a rare score of three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which rates the danger of asteroids between one and ten.
The Torino scale describes this threat as: ‘A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a one percent or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.’
But on February 20, the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth drastically decreased to just 0.005 percent, or a 1-in-20,000 chance of a direct impact.
This prompted experts to reassign the asteroid Torino Scale level zero, which indicates that it poses no threat to our planet.
‘You can think of Torino Scale Zero as signaling ‘All Clear,’ Richard P Binzel, astronomer and professor of planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), told DailyMail.com.
‘That probability will continue to bounce around, most likely plummeting further to an even smaller vanishing number. But no way we’ll see its Torino Scale Level climb back up from Zero,’ he added.
Even though 2024 YR4 is no longer a risk to Earth, the fact that NASA was preparing for far more dangerous odds just weeks ago is alarming, and it’s unclear why the agency opted not to share this worst-case scenario with the public.
On February 20, the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth drastically decreased to just 0.005 percent. This prompted experts to reassign the asteroid Torino Scale level zero, which indicates that it poses no threat to our planet
DailyMail.com has reached out to NASA for comment.
What’s more, this asteroid still has a slight chance of hitting the moon, a NASA spokesperson told The Telegraph.
That probability is currently at 1.7 percent, the agency reported Monday.
We would probably be able to see such a collision from Earth, though it’s unlikely that it would have any direct impact on our planet.
‘There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat,’ David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, told New Scientist.
This material would likely burn up if it entered Earth’s atmosphere, experts say.
The moon, however, would be left with a mighty scar. A direct hit from 2024 YR4 would punch 1.2-mile-wide crater into the lunar surface.
NASA will continue to observe this asteroid even though its threat-level has fallen to zero.
In March, the James Webb Space Telescope will survey 2024 YR4 to gain a more accurate measurement of its size and orbit, according to the European Space Agency.
And in 2028, this space rock will make a totally safe close approach to Earth, giving astronomers another opportunity to study its characteristics.
