It had to happen sooner or later – a good few weeks for Sir Keir Starmer.
After an unhappy start in Downing Street, a view is gaining ground that the Prime Minister has finally found his feet. It is an opinion that many voters share, whatever their party.
Starmer’s adept handling of his White House meeting with President Trump, combined with his strong backing for Ukraine and rallying of European leaders, finally gave Labour supporters something to cheer about (‘He seemed to come alive,’ as one put it in my recent research).
Even his opponents concede that Starmer may have his uses after all.
The squabbling at the other end of the political spectrum has given the PM a further boost.
The falling-out between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe, and the resulting expulsion of one-fifth of Reform UK’s parliamentary party, put the Government’s noisiest opponents on the back foot.
Though the intricacies of the schism will have passed most normal voters by, I found that Lowe’s characterisation of Reform as ‘a protest party led by the Messiah’ is widely shared. Even among those currently leaning towards voting Reform, only just over half currently see it as a serious party of government.
The upshot is that Starmer has strengthened his lead as the best available prime minister over both Farage and Kemi Badenoch.
Starmer’s adept handling of his White House meeting with President Trump, combined with his strong backing for Ukraine and rallying of European leaders, finally gave Labour supporters something to cheer about
Lord Ashcroft (pictured) says Starmer may have had a few good weeks after impressing at the White House and showing a strong backing for Ukraine, but domestic matters will be where he is truly judged
The falling-out between Nigel Farage (pictured) and Rupert Lowe, and the resulting expulsion of one-fifth of Reform UK’s parliamentary party, put the Government’s noisiest opponents on the back foot
As the parties gear up for the local election campaign, fewer than half of Conservative leaners see her as the best PM (indeed, Labour supporters are twice as likely to choose Starmer over Badenoch as Tories are to choose Badenoch over Starmer), and the number falls further when Farage is added into the equation.
The Conservatives have ‘gone into the woodwork’, voters often tell me, whether because they are still winded from the scale of their defeat or plotting fiendishly behind the scenes.
We will see whether the party’s newly launched policy review, together with its bold move away from the net zero agenda, have the effect of at least bringing the Tories back into the conversation.
How long Starmer’s unaccustomed streak of good fortune will last is another question.
World affairs can dominate a premiership and sometimes help to end it, but rarely bring electoral rewards.
Gordon Brown was in his element corralling fellow leaders after the 2008 financial crisis, for all the good it did him at the following election.
The ultimate example is Winston Churchill, sent packing by the voters in 1945 despite saving the nation from the Nazis.
Like all prime ministers, Starmer’s fate will depend on what happens at home.
World affairs can dominate a premiership and sometimes help to end it, but rarely bring electoral rewards; Gordon Brown (pictured) was in his element corralling fellow leaders after the 2008 financial crisis, for all the good it did him at the following election
The ultimate example is Winston Churchill (pictured), who was sent packing by the voters in 1945 despite saving the nation from the Nazis
Here he is on much rockier ground. ‘The only people they haven’t wound up are the junior doctors and the train drivers,’ one 2024 Labour voter told me last week, reflecting on the Government’s record since July, which is dominated in the public memory by cuts to the winter fuel allowance and a string of tax rises.
The perception of a two-tier justice system, another regular theme for complaints, seemed to be confirmed by the Sentencing Council’s recent proposal that judges should consider whether a defendant is part of an ethnic, religious or cultural minority when sentencing.
My focus groups suggest the guidance is every bit as unpopular as it deserves to be, and the argument that the body is independent from government gets short shrift from voters.
For one thing, it sounds to many like exactly the kind of thing that lawyerly Labour types would come up with. For another, they say, the Government are in charge, and if they really don’t like it, they should change it.
In the coming weeks, Starmer faces two further tests that will help define his leadership. The proposed welfare reforms are the most immediate and, for Labour, likely to be the most painful.
Broadly, public opinion is on the Government’s side. Most voters agree that reforming the benefits system to control costs and get people back to work if they are able is the right thing to do, and they are twice as likely to think it is too easy to claim benefits as to think it’s too hard.
Uncomfortably for ministers, Conservative and Reform-leaning voters back the intention in greater numbers than Labour’s core supporters.
Like crime and policing, welfare has always been tricky territory for Labour. My poll found that while the Tories are the party most associated with well-off people, Labour are seen as the closest to those who work hard and just about manage – but also to someone who would rather live on benefits than go to work.
In the coming weeks, Starmer faces two further tests that will help define his leadership; the proposed welfare reforms are the most immediate and, for Labour, likely to be the most painful
I also found that most of those who support welfare reform doubt that Labour will go through with it – an impression surely reinforced by the climbdown over the proposed freezing of Personal Independence Payments after threats of revolt from Labour MPs.
Further rebellion is brewing. Whether Starmer uses his huge majority to push through the right (and, for a change, popular) course of action, or caves in to the most Left-wing elements of his party, will tell us a lot about both Labour and its leader.
The other big moment is the Chancellor’s Spring Statement on Wednesday. To the astonishment of nobody except Rachel Reeves, the £40billion tax hike in her autumn budget damaged jobs and growth, meaning further action is needed to balance the books.
I found that while voters would prefer her to do so by reining in spending than raising taxes still further, they are much more likely to think yet another tax raid is on the cards.
How Sir Keir Starmer handles these challenges, and the upheavals that follow, will help determine whether the last month is remembered as a turning point in his tenure or a glimpse of foreign sunshine amid the domestic gloom.
Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is at LordAshcroftPolls.com.
X/Facebook: @LordAshcroft
