Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard about the ‘city-killer’ asteroid heading towards Earth.
The asteroid, 2024 YR4, was only discovered back in December, and is estimated be about 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 metres) across.
At the higher end, that suggests the asteroid is around the same size as New York’s Statue of Liberty, or London’s Big Ben.
According to NASA’s latest estimates, the space rock now has a 1-in-67 (1.5 per cent) likelihood of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032.
This is significantly down from the space agency’s earlier prediction of one-in-32 (3.1 per cent) made earlier this week.
While the potential impact date is still 7.5 years away, the news has raised fears around the world over the genuine possibility of a deadly impact.
So, where could the asteroid hit, does NASA have the ability to deviate it, and could Bruce Willis save us?
MailOnline’s Science and Technology Editor, Shivali Best, answers your questions about asteroid 2024 YR4.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard about the ‘city-killer’ asteroid heading towards Earth. The asteroid, 2024 YR4, was only discovered back in December, and is estimated be about 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 metres) across
According to NASA ‘s latest estimates, the space rock now has a 1-in-67 (1.5 per cent) likelihood of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032
How big is the asteroid?
2024 YR4 is estimated be about 130 – 300 feet across (40 – 90 metres).
At the lower end of this estimate, that would make the asteroid about three-fourths as tall as Nelson’s Column.
At the higher end, that suggests the asteroid is around the same size as New York’s Statue of Liberty, or London’s Big Ben.
Where could it hit?
A NASA scientist has predicted exactly where the asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike.
David Rankin, an engineer with the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey Project, has sketched the ‘risk corridor’ according to the asteroid’s current trajectory.
If 2024 YR4 really does hit Earth in 2032, it should fall somewhere in a narrow band stretching from northern South America across the Pacific to sub-Saharan Africa and into Asia.
Since the asteroid was first identified in December, it has changed its estimates on the chance of it hitting us several times
Scientists have predicted the exact path (shown in red) where the city-destroying asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth. It should fall somewhere in a narrow band stretching from northern South America across the Pacific to sub-Saharan Africa and into Asia
Worryingly, this path extends over eight of the world’s 100 most populated cities – including Bogota, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata and Dhaka.
How much destruction would there be if it hit the middle of a city?
If the asteroid does hit Earth, it would create a blast equivalent to detonating 7.7 megatons of TNT, leaving a 3,000ft-wide crater in the ground.
Alternatively, instead of slamming into Earth’s surface, 2024 YR4 may explode in mid-air in what’s known as an ‘airburst’.
Depending on the size of the asteroid, this airburst could cause buildings to collapse and windows to shatter across an entire city.
If the asteroid were to burst over the ocean, NASA says that it would be unlikely to cause significant tsunami, either from the middle of the ocean or even nearer shore.
What’s the possibility that scientists have got it wrong?
Since the asteroid was first identified in December, it has changed its estimates on the chance of it hitting us several times.
Unsurprisingly, this has led many people to question whether the US space agency has got it wrong.
At the moment there’s limited information on its size and orbit.
But as NASA gathers more observations of the asteroid over the next 7.5 years, its future trajectory can be better understood – and we should get a more reliable idea on where we stand.
What are the chances this will actually happen?
NASA’s latest estimates suggest there is a one-in-67 (or 1.5%) chance that the asteroid will hit Earth on 22nd December 2032.
However, the asteroid is currently heading away from Earth – and by April, it will be so far away that it won’t be detectable by Earth-based telescopes.
The next time it will be bright enough to track will then be 2028.
Why are the chances getting higher?
One of the most talked-about techniques is using a nuclear weapon to destroy the asteroid. However, NASA says this wouldn’t happen in the way Bruce Willis did it in Armageddon – by drilling a hole in the asteroid and then setting off a nuclear bomb
The chances of the asteroid hitting Earth have actually dropped this week from 3.1% to 1.5%.
And NASA predicts that, as more observations are collected, this probability will probably drop to 0.
Does NASA have the ability to deviate it?
In 2022, NASA’s DART mission tested whether it was possible to deflect an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it.
While that mission was a success, it’s probably not possible to use the same technique with this asteroid.
Scientists say that you need at least 10 years to build, plan, and execute an asteroid deflection mission – which doesn’t give NASA enough time before the potential collision in 2032.
Dr Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and author based in London, tweeted: ‘So much could go wrong if we try and hit it with something like DART.’
Most asteroids are not solid rock but ‘rubble piles’ – clusters of loose boulders, stones and sand held together by the weak mutual gravity of space.
In 2022, NASA’s DART mission tested whether it was possible to deflect an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it. While that mission was a success, it’s probably not possible to use the same technique with this asteroid
At the moment, we don’t know the exact size of 2024 YR4, or even if it’s a rubble pile asteroid too – but hitting rubble pile asteroids with a spacecraft like DART could potentially generate a cloud of debris that could head towards Earth anyway.
‘Nobody wants to accidentally “disrupt” an asteroid, because those components can still head for Earth,’ Dr Andrews said.
Will a nuclear device be needed?
One of the most talked-about techniques is using a nuclear weapon to destroy the asteroid.
However, NASA says this wouldn’t happen in the way Bruce Willis did it in Armageddon – by drilling a hole in the asteroid and then setting off a nuclear bomb.
Speaking in 2019, Lindley Johnson, NASA’s planetary defense officer, said: ‘If you’ve seen those movies, they’re completely bogus.
‘That’s not how we would use a nuclear explosive device to do this at all.’
Detonating a nuclear weapon inside or on the surface of an asteroid could actually create more problems for us, by sending multiple smaller space rocks our way.
Instead, NASA believes the best tactic would be to detonate a nuclear weapon a few hundreds of metres away from the asteroid.
‘That causes an irradiation of the surface of the asteroid on that side, heats it up, superheats the surface. That surface will then blow off from the asteroid,’ Johnson explained.
That dramatic action would trigger an equal and opposite reaction, rebounding the asteroid away from Earth.
However, as it stands, nuclear weapons are not permitted in space.
Article IV of the Outer Space Treaty forbids nuclear or mass destruction weapons in Earth’s orbit, on celestial bodies and in outer space.
Do I have to go to work on that day?
It’s probably a little bit premature to be asking your boss for the day off.
But if does turn out that the asteroid is heading for your hometown, I really wouldn’t blame you for a hopping on the next flight out of here!
2024 YR4 is estimated be about 130 – 300 feet across (40 – 90 metres). At the higher end, that suggests the asteroid is around the same size as New York’s Statue of Liberty, or London’s Big Ben
Could Elon Musk save us?
From Tesla hotpants to Boring Company flamethrowers, Elon Musk is known for his weird and wacky ideas.
But if the asteroid does head our way, it could be his company, SpaceX, that comes to the rescue.
In response to one user on X, Musk said that SpaceX’s super-heavy Starship rockets could be ‘ideal’ for protecting Earth.
‘Starships on Mars or, even better, stationed throughout the asteroid belt, would be ideal for protecting Earth from asteroids and especially comets,’ he tweeted.
