Britons are bracing for ‘exceptional’ hurricane-force winds as Storm Eowyn hits the country tomorrow.
The Met Office has issued a rare red warning ahead of the storm, which is set to bring 100mph gales to large parts of the UK within hours.
Now, scientists have warned that the storm is ‘explosively developing’.
‘The storm is “explosively developing,” meaning it’s intensifying at an exceptional rate,’ said Dr Ambrogio Volonté, a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading.
‘Its central air pressure is expected to plummet by over 50hPa in just 24 hours – more than twice what’s needed for meteorologists to classify it as explosive.’
According to the experts, a ‘very active jet stream’ is to blame for the ‘particularly potent’ storm.
Professor Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: ‘Storm Eowyn is a particularly potent storm particular because of a very active jet stream.
‘Also the storm will be at its strongest as it crosses the UK and Ireland.’
Britons are bracing for ‘exceptional’ hurricane-force winds as Storm Eowyn hits the country tomorrow
The Met Office has issued a rare red warning ahead of the storm, which is set to bring 100mph gales to large parts of the UK within hours
What has caused the storm?
The jet stream provides the mechanism for storms like this to develop.
This band of strong winds sits at the top of the atmosphere, around 30,000ft above the ground.
As it flows high overhead, it causes changes in the pressure nearer the surface, helping to shape the weather we see.
‘It acts a bit like a vacuum cleaner, sucking air out of the top and causing it to become more intense, lowering the pressure system,’ the Met Office explained.
‘The lower the pressure within a system, generally the stronger the wind, and more stormy the result.’
In the case of Storm Eowyn, Dr Volonté explains that the powerful jet stream has occurred in conjunction with changes at the ocean’s surface.
‘This rapid strengthening happens when a powerful jet stream high in the atmosphere combines with a sharp contrast in temperatures and moisture at the ocean’s surface, creating the perfect conditions for the system to grow into a particularly intense and dangerous storm,’ he explained.
The jet stream provides the mechanism for storms like this to develop. This band of strong winds sits at the top of the atmosphere, around 30,000ft above the ground
Pet owners have been warned to keep dogs on leads tomorrow as the storm barrels towards the UK. Pictured: The calm before the storm on Tynemouth Longsands beach in North Tyneside this morning
Professor Bentley added: ‘The jet stream in winter is often stronger leading to more storms forming.
‘And its position is often closer to the UK so those developing systems are directed towards our shores.’
Is climate change to blame?
It might be tempting to blame climate change for Storm Eowyn.
However, Professor Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor Emeritus at the University of Oxford, has warned that in this case, it’s not straightforward.
‘The storm has been fuelled by an exceptionally strong jet stream over the North Atlantic,’ he explained.
‘However, the strong jet stream is in turn linked to the circulations over North America which have brought cold temperatures over much of the continent, with a strong gradient of temperature with sea temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere.
‘Whether the circulations bringing the cold air to North American have a climate change component is currently unknown. Some speculate it does, but the evidence is not clear.
Scientists have warned that the storm is ‘explosively developing’, with its peak devastation set to hit on Friday
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‘Whilst climate change is relatively simple and straightforward at the global scale, it gets complicated at the regional scale where the effects of CO2 interact with the naturally occurring dynamical patterns of climate variability.
‘Although we have a good understanding of the basic thermodynamics of climate change – how it warms and moistens the atmosphere – our understanding of these dynamical impacts of climate change is much less good.’
‘It is likely that the thermodynamical effects of climate change have intensified Storm Eowyn somewhat.
‘However, we do not know whether the potentially more important dynamical effects of climate change have exacerbated the storm or not.
‘This is an area of ongoing research where the development of high-resolution climate models is proving vital.’
How does Storm Eowyn compare to other storms?
According to Dr Volonté, Storm Eowyn could rival the ferocity of Storm Eunice and Storm Ciaran – both of which sadly claimed lives and left behind severe damage.
‘Storm Eowyn’s structure mirrors some of the most formidable storms of recent decades,’ he explained.
‘And its predicted intensity puts it firmly in the ranks of the strongest we’ve experienced.
The Met Office also issued red weather warnings ahead of these two storms,
‘It is rare for the Met Office to issue red warnings. They are the highest level of weather warning and indicate that dangerous weather is expected and there is a danger to life,’ Professor Bentley warned.
