The blizzard of executive orders from the White House has gone down pretty well with the American electorate.
Following a month of hyperactivity, President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at a respectable 44 per cent according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
This is despite the seriously controversial nature of what he’s been proposing.
Trump has had some big wins. Rapid and dramatic action on illegal migration has proved popular. Trump’s orders revoking aspects of DEI have struck a chord, particularly with his MAGA base.
But some of the problems facing the 47th president will take real time to solve.
These include some key promises, such as bringing down the cost of living, re-industrializing the US, ending the war in Ukraine and – the pledge that underpins so many other aspirations – bringing down the price of oil.
President Trump has signed a blizzard of executive orders since coming to office
His promise to bring down the price of groceries will be hard to fulfil in the short term
Cheap energy is key to lowering inflation and helping America to reindustrialize. Trump supporters are pictured at an election campaign event at a Michigan steel plan
President Trump knows that energy must be kept affordable for the global trade volume to increase – and for ordinary Americans to feel that, after years of declining living standards following the pandemic, they really are getting richer once again. Or able to keep their heads above the water, at least.
Cheap energy is very much the way to bring down the price of groceries – the price of eggs – a key election promise. And Trump knows that the electorate will be a harsh judge when it comes to his handling of the domestic economy.
With inflation at three per cent, higher than at any time since June, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that voters are already registering the first signs of concern. Prices are still going up; the president promised to bring them down.
Yet cutting the cost of energy is no easy matter, the more so as the OPEC club of major oil and gas producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia and including the likes of the UAE, is determined to keep production levels modest – and prices high. Their own prosperity matters to them.
Add to that the fact that China, one of the biggest energy consumers on the planet, is actively colluding in this policy – and receiving ‘preferable’ treatment in the process, and the task of creating bringing about a new era of cheap energy looks huge.
True, Trump is serious when he says America will ‘drill baby, drill’ and the US will continue pumping more hydrocarbons than it needs for domestic consumption.
Even this is not straightforward, however. US energy suppliers are already producing as much oil and gas as they can sell right now. There is little incentive to pump yet more.
A Golden Age of cheap energy might take a little while.
Yet there is another geopolitical option out there for America – and one in particular that, although not a complete answer, might well help Trump escape the strangle-hold of the OPEC and its damaging determination to restrict global supply.
I’m talking here about the seven independent ‘Turkic’ republics – the countries, many known as the ‘Stans’, linked by geography and a shared heritage of language and tradition: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Northern Cyprus and Turkey itself.
The first three in this list are rich in oil and natural gas rich Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan offer a wealth of important minerals including gold, uranium, and the sort of rare earth metals essential for advanced electronics.
Then there is Turkey itself, with an expanding economy and a strategic location which gives it control over key oil and gas pipelines and major shipping lanes (including control of access to the Black Sea at the Bosphorous).
Turkey and its allied Turkic nations control huge supplies of hydrocarbons – and the infrastructure supply them. Pictured is the Ceyhan terminal near Turkey’s southern coastal city of Adana, which takes oil piped from the Caspian Sea fields
Turkey has cultural sway over an alliance of states with vast energy reserves
Finally, there is Northern Cyprus. Often viewed as too small to mention, this strategic sliver of land could make a world of difference because of its proximity to serious reserves of oil in the in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Not only is this coalition of Turkish-speaking powers – the Organization of Turkic States – a significant producer of hydrocarbons and much else besides, they are nationalist in outlook and anti-globalist. This should be music to Trump’s ears.
They believe in the right to exploit their natural assets and advantages – rather than accepting the inevitability of American or Chinese hegemony – and that is exactly what they will do.
They are happy enough with Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ trade tariffs because they have plenty to bring to the table.
The bad news for the White House and for Europe is that Russia and China are both fully apprised of what they have to offer will do their utmost to prevent the Magnificent Seven falling into the US orbit.
Russia and China – now closer than ever thanks to the Ukraine war – would very much like to keep the US well away from the Turkic alliance.
It is not just about the plentiful stocks of crude or gas, either. The importance of the region’s infrastructure can’t be overstated.
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan ship their natural resources to the European markets via pipelines over Turkey.
Thanks to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan now single-handedly supplies the entire Balkan region, and Austria, through pipelines passing through Turkey.
The current plan is to double the volume of hydrocarbons supplied through these pipes to ensure that the Old Continent remains energy secure for the foreseeable future.
That, if nothing else, is a good way to keep the prices down.
Currently, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are working on building a pipeline under the Caspian Sea so that Turkmen natural resources come even faster to Europe.
The fact is that OPEC and Russia are steadily losing their ability to strangle the West with high prices, with all the economic devastation that entails.
All these developments will be vitally important to the United States of America and to the legacy of the 47th president.
But for this to happen, the West – and America in particular – has to play its cards right.
In my 2020 book, ‘Gamechanger Trump Card: Erdogan and Turkey’ I argued in 2020 that, if the US does not collaborate with Turkey, it will not remain the sole superpower of the world beyond the end of this decade.
Four years of Joe Biden have come close to proving me right.
Both Russia and China understand the importance of courting the Turkic nations. Now America must do the same, says Erbil Gunasti. Here President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands at a summit in Astana, Khazakhstan
Fortunately for the US, I believe President Trump has understood the importance to keeping Turkey and the Turkic world as allies, the more so given the mess that the 46th president left behind.
Now wonder Russia and China are doing their best to court them. Russia is falling over itself to sell weapons and military advice. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is providing a range of less developed nations, including the Turkic states, with finance and technology of a sort that the West has been reluctant to offer.
It is worth noting, also, that the Organization of Turkic states is planning to project itself as a formally unified republic, namely the United States of Turan (UST) in the near future.
There are five full members. Turkmenistan, Hungary – whose people have their origins in the Turkic-speaking steppes (the Hun part of the name is a clue) –and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus have observer status.
Together, the members of the UST have nearly two million people, a four-trillion dollar buying power, strong armed forces and enough natural resources to make them an independent and viable union – with the ability to rival the likes of OPEC or Russia and make them indispensable for the Western Civilization.
Thank God for the US – and a president who understands all this.
- GameChanger: Trump Card: Turkey & Erdogan: by Erbil Gunasti and Daphne Barak, : 9781642934595: Amazon.com
