On May 6, 1954, Roger Bannister achieved a goal that had once been thought physically impossible – the four-minute mile.
Now, more than 70 years later, scientists say today’s female runners are ready to take on the challenge.
In a new study, scientists have revealed that Kenyan Olympian Faith Kipyegon, 31, has what it takes to run a four-minute mile.
With the perfect race, they calculate Kipyegon could complete a mile in 3:59:37 – beating Bannister’s record-breaking time by 0.3 of a second.
Lead researcher Professor Rodger Kram, of the University of Colorado Boulder, says that a four-minute mile was once seen as the sporting equivalent of ‘summiting Mount Everest for the first time’.
‘Prior to Bannister, it was considered impossible – beyond the limits of human physiology,’ says Professor Kram.
When Kipyegon smashed the women’s world record for a mile in 2023 with a time of 4:07.64, she was just three per cent off the four-minute mark.
And with the right training, state-of-the-art shoes, and a carefully choreographed team of pacing runners, scientists say Kipyegon could be the first woman to pass this seemingly impossible barrier.
70 years after Roger Bannister became the first human to run a four-minute mile, scientists say that Kenyan Olympian Faith Kipyegon (pictured) could be the first woman to complete this feat
On May 6, 1954, Roger Bannister (pictured) made the first ever four-minute mile. Prior to his record-breaking race, this had been considered physically impossible
Faith Kipyegon is one of the world’s best middle and long-distance runners, and is the current world record holder for the mile and 1,500 metres.
Although she hasn’t ruled out attempting a four-minute mile, shaving off those last few seconds will require more than a stellar athletic performance.
If she wants to push herself beyond the four-minute barrier, Kipyegon’s biggest obstacle will be wind resistance.
The researchers calculate that an athlete of Kipyegon’s size would face wind resistance equal to two per cent of their body weight at a four-minute mile pace.
Completely eliminating that force would reduce the energy needed to run by about 12 per cent, allowing them to hit even faster speeds.
When Kipyegon shattered the women’s mile record during the Monaco Diamond League, the conditions were almost perfect.
The wind was dead calm and the air had a slight humidity which reduced the total air resistance.
Just like cyclists in a peloton, Kipyegon also ran the race with a pacer who pushed out in front to shelter her from the wind – an absolutely key detail for a record-breaking attempt.
Faith Kipyogon is the current world record holder for the women’s 1,500-metre and mile races. Her record for the mile is just three per cent off the four-minute mark
Professor Kram says: ‘The runner in front is literally pushing the air molecules out of the way.’
However, after poring over the race footage, Professor Kram noticed that Kipyegon’s pacers ran too fast, letting the gap between them grow and exposing her to more wind.
By the final lap, her pacer dropped out of the lead and left her to push through the full force of the air alone.
In an ideal race, she would have a pacer in front and behind for the first half mile before a fresh pair stepped in to replace them for the last half.
Together, these adjustments could cut the air resistance by 76 per cent.
Based on her 2023 performance, proper pacing alone would allow Kipyegon to run a sub-four-minute mile.
Co-author Shalaya Kipp, an Olympic middle-distance runner and sports scientist, says: ‘We found that if everything went right, under a couple of different drafting scenarios, she could break the 4-minute barrier.
‘It’s extremely exciting that we are now talking about, and studying, the limits of female human performance, too.’
If Kipyegon (pictured) ran with a pacer in front and behind the reduction in air resistance could allow her to complete a mile in just 3:59:37 – beating Bannister’s record-breaking time by 0.3 of a second.
This is the same technique which allowed Kenya’s Eliud Kipchoge to run a marathon distance in less than two hours in 2019 (pictured). Kipchoge’s team reduced the air resistance by surrounding him with seven pacers
This is the same technique which allowed Eliud Kipchoge to set the first sub-two-hour marathon time in 2019.
Before attempting the challenge, Kipchoge’s previous record was just three per cent off the two-hour mark – the same gap faced by Kipyegon for the mile.
In order to set his astonishingly fast time of 1:59:40, Kipchoge used a team of seven pacers, five in front in a ‘V’ formation and two flanking him from behind.
Kipchoge also wore a prototype pair of Nike Vaporfly shoes which have proved controversial for their performance-boosting credentials.
Professor Kram and his co-authors now believe that Kipyegon should be able to use their research to conduct a similar record-breaking race.
The authors say that they have contacted Kipyegon and her sponsor, Nike, asking her to put their theory into practice.
The last line of their paper reads: ‘Hopefully, Ms Kipyegon can test our prediction on the track.’
